As China is poised to become the world’s largest creditor, concerns about debt sustainability have grown. Yet considerable confusion exists over what is likely to happen when a government runs into trouble repaying its Chinese loans.
In this working paper, the authors draw on data from the China Africa Research Initiative (CARI) to review the evidence on China’s debt cancellation and restructuring in Africa, in comparative and historical perspective. Cases from Sri Lanka, Iraq, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Angola, and the Republic of Congo, among others, point to patterns of debt relief with distinctly Chinese characteristics. In nearly all cases, China has offered debt write-offs only for zero-interest loans. This study found that between 2000 and 2019, China has cancelled at least US$ 3.4 billion of debt in Africa. There is no “China, Inc.”: for interest-bearing loans, treatment for inter-governmental debt and Chinese company loans are negotiated separately, and often loan-by-loan rather than for the entire portfolio. While rescheduling by increasing the repayment period is common, changes in interest rates, reductions in principal (“haircuts”), or refinancing are not. The authors found that China has restructured or refinanced approximately US$ 15 billion of debt in Africa between 2000 and 2019. They found no “asset seizures” and despite contract clauses requiring arbitration, no evidence of the use of courts to enforce payments, or application of penalty interest rates. Although Chinese lenders have applied Paris Club terms to some rescheduling, on the borrower’s request, Chinese lenders prefer to address restructuring quietly, on a bilateral basis, tailoring programs to each situation. Yet the lack of transparency fuels suspicion about Chinese intentions. These patterns are likely to play out as Chinese lenders and African borrowers grapple with the impact of COVID-19.
The presentation was followed by a discussion and a Q&A session.
Presenters:
Prof. Deborah BRAUTIGAM, Director, China-Africa Research Initiative
Mr. Kevin ACKER, Research Manager, China-Africa Research Initiative
Mr. Yufan HUANG, Research Assistant, China-Africa Research Initiative
Discussants:
Dr. David DOLLAR, Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, Global Economy and Development, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution
Mr. W. Gyude MOORE, Senior Policy Fellow, Center for Global Development
Prof. Jianye WANG, Professor and Dean, Guangzhou Institute of International Finance; Professor and Director of the Volatility Institute, NYU Shanghai
Moderator:
Prof. Yoon Jung PARK, Associate Director, China-Africa Research Initiative